Typhoon Sanba (Karen) Update #5

Typhoon Sanba (Bagyong Karen) continues to quickly intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 620km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Sanba is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite imagery shows an eye starting to appear on infra-red. Sanba is intensifying at a fairly fast pace now with a ring of very strong convective activity surrounding the storm's center; outflow remains excellent as well. Some bands of rain showers enhanced by Sanba is currently impacting Bicol Region and parts of Eastern Visayas. Rainfall amounts of up to 100mm possible here along with breezy conditions throughout today. More rains will impact Visayas and should spread into Luzon later today. Please visit PAGASA's Project NOAH for the latest radar image and rainfall forecast for your area. Click HERE

Typhoon Sanba (Bagyong Karen) is currently moving west northwestward but should turn more to the north later today. Favorable conditions will also help the system intensify at a quick pace; Sanba could become a Category 2 later today and perhaps even a Category typhoon by as early as tonight.

Forecast tracks remain nearly the same and the consensus is still taking Sanba near Okinawa by early Sunday morning. By that time, Sanba could be a very strong Category 4 Typhoon. Again, there is chance of Sanba undergoing rapid intensification and if that happens, there is a small possibility of this system reaching Category 5 strength. After that, Sanba should start to weaken as it moves into East China Sea. Nevertheless, Sanba could still be a powerful typhoon as it moves into the Korean Peninsula by early next week.

We'll have more updates later today.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 091312