Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Tropical Storm Sanba (Karen) Update #3

Tropical Storm Sanba (Bagyong Karen) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 780km east of Catarman, Northern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 100kph. Sanba is moving northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has not issued any Public Storm Warning Signals related to Sanba (Karen).

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows improving banding along with continued strong convective activity. Radial outflow also remains very good helping the system to intensify at a pretty good pace. Microwave data (not shown here) also suggest that an eyewall maybe starting to form and could actually help the system intensify into a typhoon in the next 24 to 36 hours!

Right now, the bulk of convection remains offshore although rain showers may affect parts of Visayas and Mindanao throughout today. We're not expecting huge amounts of rainfall although 50mm may still be possible. Furthermore, rough waves will persist throughout the Eastern Seaboard of the Philippines so please keep that in mind.

Latest forecasts are still in very good agreement showing very little chance of landfall in the Philippines. The consensus is taking Sanba generally to the northwest intensifying along the way. It could threaten the Ryukyu Islands by this weekend as a strong typhoon.

We'll have another update later today.
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 091212

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