Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Ewiniar Update #4

Tropical Storm Ewiniar continues to slowly consolidate as it moves near the Ogasawara Islands. The system was last located approximately 340km southwest of Iwo To. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Ewiniar is moving northward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image continue to show a lopsided appearance of Ewiniar. Much of the convection is still displaced east of the center due to that strong westerly wind shear. However, we are starting to see more clouds moving and forming over the low-level center which may suggest that the wind shear is slowly weakening. Currently, much of the convection is still not affecting Iwo To but the area may start seeing stronger winds tonight. Rains will certainly move over the area in the next 24 hours and will eventually affect much of the Ogasawara Islands in the next 2 days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Ewiniar is forecast to continue moving northward then take a slight turn to the north northeast. It will bring stormy conditions across the Ogasawara Islands tomorrow and could bring rains of up to 50 and even 100mm. Ewiniar will then continue moving northward and eventually turn northeastward due to the jet stream, sparing Honshu from a landfall. However, please do note that we are keeping Southeastern Honshu including Tokyo inside our Forecast Cone of Error so anywhere inside that cone should continue watching this system closely for any changes in the track. As for the intensity, we are siding with JMA and are expecting Ewiniar to briefly attain Typhoon status by Friday as it moves well southeast of Tokyo.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092512

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