Monday, September 24, 2012

Tropical Depression 19W Update #2

Tropical Depression 19W continues to battle strong westerly shear as it moves north across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 560km southwest of Iwo To, Japan or about 1,000km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 19W is moving north at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the convection displaced east of the storm's circulation center (in red X). Strong westerly shear of around 30kts is displacing much of that convection east and not allowing any to build near the center. We still think that shear will weaken in the next 2 days allowing the system to consolidate better.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression 19W will continue moving northward perhaps becoming a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. As shear relaxes by tomorrow evening or by Wednesday, we expect 19W to continue strengthening. By that time, 19W is forecast to move more to the northeast perhaps moving within 200km of the island of Iwo To (Iwo Jima). It could also affect the rest of the Ogasawara Islands by Wednesday bringing gusty winds and some rain showers. While the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecast a peak intensity of only 85kph, some computer models are actually forecasting this depression to become a Typhoon in 3 days' time. Our personal forecast here is going with the current model forecasts and, thus, we think TD 19W may briefly attain Typhoon Status by Thursday or Friday. With that said, we think that 19W will be far enough to not really impact Honshu or the Tokyo area. Nevertheless, forecast cones continue to include Southeast Honshu so people here should continue watching the developments of this system.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Text and Video Update for Typhoon Jelawat coming up in half an hour.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092412

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