Saturday, August 25, 2012

Typhoon Tembin Update #15

Typhoon Tembin continues to intensify south of China and has been upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon. It was last located approximately 300km southeast of Hong Kong or about 630km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Tembin is currently moving south southeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tembin has begun to turn southeastward, slowly away from China. Warm waters and weak wind shear is allowing the system to continuously intensify. A rugged eye has formed since early this morning surrounded by strong convective activity. Outflow remains good in all quadrants as well. Tembin will continue intensifying in the next 24 to 36 hours and has a small chance of becoming a Category 3 Typhoon before making landfall in Taiwan.

Radar from CMA

Latest radar from China shows the eye of Tembin along with the rainbands that are currently staying offshore. Comparing with the infra-red and the radar image above, there seems to be some dry air affecting the circulation of Tembin; notice the lack of activity particularly along the northeastern side of Tembin's eye. For more radar images, warnings, and forecasts from China, please click HERE

Typhoon Tembin will continue moving southeastward and eventually turn to the northeast as Bolaven exerts greater influence on the system. Current forecast tracks suggest that the system may make landfall once again in Taiwan, probably near Hengchun by early Tuesday morning. It will then weaken to a Tropical Storm as it moves northward staying near Taiwan through Wednesday.

We'll have more updates later this afternoon.
Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 082612

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