Saturday, August 25, 2012

Typhoon Tembin (Igme) Update #14

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Tembin has intensified back to a Typhoon as it meanders in the waters south of China. Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) was last located approximately 490km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan or about 160km southeast of Shantou, or 370km east southeast of Hong Kong. Tembin is currently moving west southwestward at 10kph. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph.

PAGASA has dropped all Public Storm Warning Signals as Tembin moves away from the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Likewise, the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan has dropped its own Typhoon Warnings but are still issuing Heavy Rain Advisories along the southern portion of the island. 

China Meteorological Administration, meanwhile, has issued Blue Warning for Typhoon. The Hong Kong Observatory, has issued Standby Signal No. 1. These warnings are only precautionary and neither agency is forecasting a landfall. Nevertheless, the proximity of Tembin to the coast of China could still bring scattered showers, breezy winds along the coast, as well as rough waves.

Radar from CMA

Speaking of rains, latest radar image from Guangdong Province shows the eye of Tembin south of the province. Bulk of the rains are also situated offshore although outer rain bands may impact coastal Guangdong, around Shantou, from time to time. No significant amounts of rainfall expected. For the latest radar images, warnings, and forecasts from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows what seems to be an eye trying to form. A microwave image taken an hour ago (not shown here) reveals a fully organized eyewall that is nearly 80km wide. This compelled us (and JTWC) to upgrade Tembin back to a Typhoon. (JMA continues to analyze Tembin as a Severe Tropical Storm) The image above also shows ample outflow on all radials allowing the system to re-organize. Warm waters in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea together with weak wind shear should allow Tembin to continue intensifying in the next 2 days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Tembin will continue meandering in this area for the next 24 hours. Fujiwhara Effect is forecast to fully commence once Bolaven nears Okinawa tomorrow morning. This binary interaction should force Tembin to make a u-turn and head back towards Taiwan. It could re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility as early as tomorrow evening or perhaps by Monday morning. It will accelerate slightly and will move near Hengchun on the Southern tip of Taiwan by Monday evening. Tembin could reach a peak intensity of Category 2 strength by Tuesday as it moves east of Taiwan. Aside from Taiwan, strong winds and widespread rains will also impact the islands north of Luzon, particularly Batanes Group of Islands starting Monday.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082512

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