Friday, August 17, 2012

Typhoon Kai-Tak Update #13

Note: For our complete Video Update on all of these systems (issued an hour ago), please click HERE

Typhoon Kai-Tak (Formerly Bagyong Helen) is now moving along the coast of Southern Guangxi Province after making landfall across Leizhou Peninsula earlier this morning. Kai-Tak was last located approximately 170km south southeast of Nanning (capital of Guangxi) or about 340km east northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Kai-Tak is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

China Meteorological Agency continues to issue Orange Warning across Southern China for strong winds of up to 120kph. The agency is also issuing Yellow Alert for the possibility of heavy rains of up to 200mm along Southeastern Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the Central Dense Overcast of Kai-Tak remains pretty organized despite landfall. The eye is now gone though and the convection continues to gradually weaken. Kai-Tak could weaken to a Tropical Storm later tonight as it moves into Vietnam.

Radar Image from CMA

Latest radar composite from Southeastern China shows the core of Kai-Tak along with its spiral bands continuing to bring widespread rains in the region. Many areas have now reported 100 to 200mm of rains in the past 24 hours and up to 200mm more could fall tonight and into tomorrow. Eventually all that moisture will spread into Vietnam tonight and will last throughout tomorrow. Kai-Tak could also enhance the Southwest Monsoon possibly bringing rains across much of Indochina in the next 3 days. For more radar images, warnings, and forecasts from China, please click HERE

Typhoon Kai-Tak will weaken to a Tropical Storm later tonight as it moves into Northeastern Vietnam. The system could move within 200km to the north of Hanoi early tomorrow morning (Saturday). Kai-Tak will continue rapidly weakening as it moves across Northern Vietnam and could fully dissipate tomorrow evening or by Sunday morning.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Meanwhile, a developing low pressure area was spotted roughly 400km northeast of Luzon. Invest 96W is currently exhibiting pretty good signature on satellite with a strong mid-level circulation and a developing low-level center, along with good outflow. The system is in an area of weak to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Based on the latest data, this disturbance could become a Tropical Cyclone in the next 2 days. Preliminary forecasts from computer models show 96W moving northward towards either Taiwan or Eastern China by next week.

IR Image from NOAA

Another weak LPA was spotted southwest of Guam although this system is still largely disorganized. Computer models are also showing this LPA developing into a cyclone in the next 3 to 5 days. Finally, most of the Philippines is enjoying quiet weather with only isolated thunderstorms to worry about.

We'll have another update tomorrow. If you have any storm reports, images and videos, or just comments or questions, please email us at
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 081712

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