Thursday, August 16, 2012

Typhoon Kai-Tak (Helen) Update #11

Note: For the latest video update on Kai-Tak and updates across the Pacific, please click HERE
(Video uses winds from JMA so in there, Kai-Tak is still a Tropical Storm)

Kai-Tak has intensified into a Typhoon as it moves across the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea and could make landfall in Guangdong Province tomorrow morning. Typhoon Kai-Tak (Bagyong Helen) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is now heading towards Southern China. The system was last located approximately 350km south southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 155kph. Kai-Tak is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, Hong Kong Observatory has issued Strong Wind Signal #3 for winds of 40 to 60kph that could impact the region tonight and into tomorrow. China Meteorological Administration, on the other hand, has issued Orange Warning for Guangdong and nearby areas for the possibility of strong typhoon-force winds as Kai-Tak is expected to make landfall in the region in less than 24 hours. If you are in these areas mentioned, PLEASE PLEASE heed the warnings of your local officials! Continue watching the news or go to HKO or CMA for the latest

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the Central Dense Overcast continuing to organize. While the system has been upgraded to a typhoon by several agencies, we have yet to see a clear eye from satellite images. However, the accompanying Microwave image below clearly shows that the eyewall is now established and it is only a matter of time before that eye becomes visible on infra-red. Going back to the image above, some convection have started to fire ahead of Kai-Tak and is beginning to bring widespread rains across Southwestern Guangdong particularly in the island of Hainan. Furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon is also enhancing light rains across Vietnam.

Microwave Image from NRLMRY

Typhoon Kai-Tak will continue intensifying tonight and could peak at just below Category 2 strength. The center of the typhoon will move within 300km to the southwest of Hong Kong tonight or perhaps early tomorrow so while Hong Kong may not see strong typhoon winds, it could still see winds of up to 80kph along with occasional rains and high waves. As for Guangdong, expect conditions to continue deteriorating with Hainan Island being the first to feel strong winds in the next 6 to 12 hours. Kai-Tak is forecast to make landfall near the city of Zhanjiang tomorrow morning (Friday) as a strong Category 1 typhoon. It will then move into the province of Guagnxi, quickly weakening to a Tropical Storm by Saturday. By Sunday, Kai-Tak is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Depression as it crosses into Northern Vietnam. The system is forecast to completely dissipate by as early as Sunday night.

 Winds of up to 150kph is possible around SW Guangdong. Rains of up to 200mm could also fall across the region and will move eventually to Guangxi and Northern Vietnam. The remnants of Kai-Tak and the Southwest Monsoon could continue bringing rains across Indochina even into early next week.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Philippines Quick Update

The effects of the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) has diminished across Luzon as Kai-Tak pulls away from the country. Nevertheless, western sections such as Zambales and Bataan may still see some thunderstorms and rain showers tonight and into tomorrow. Rest of Luzon should expect continued improvement in the weather tomorrow. Fair weather will also persist for much of Visayas with only a small chance of thunderstorms forming in the afternoon. For Mindanao, today was a generally quiet day weather wise although a Tropical Wave moving in from the east could bring occasional light rains across eastern portions (Davao Provinces) tomorrow. This wave is not expected to become a storm. Rest of the Pacific looks quiet although the Monsoon Trough is still active across the basin. Furthermore, some computer models are hinting of a possible cyclone development in 2 to 3 days along the Philippine Sea, well east of Luzon. This cyclone formation is still uncertain and we'll continue to watch the region for any threats. For more radar images and rainfall forecasts across the Philippines, please visit PAGASA's PROJECT NOAH by clicking HERE

If you have any storm reports, images and videos, or comments, questions, or suggestions, please email us at

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 081612

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