Saturday, August 4, 2012

Tropical Storm Haikui Update #2

Note: For the latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Haikui, the remnants of Saola (Bagyong Gener), the SW Monsoon (Habagat), and even the Atlantic Basin, please click HERE

Tropical Storm Haikui has managed to strengthen slightly in the past 24 hours and is nearing Daito and Okinawa Islands. The system was last located approximately 100km east of Daitojima or about 460km east of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are up slightly to75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Haikui is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

Kadena Base has now issued TCCOR 3 for the possibility of destructive winds within 48 hours. JMA, on the other hand, has raised Heavy Rain and High Waves Warnings (along with other advisories) across many islands in the Ryukyu including Okinawa and Amami. If you are in these areas, please continue to closely monitor the developments of Haikui. If you haven't done so already, please prepare for stormy conditions in the next 24 hours.

Radar from JMA

Latest radar out of Daito now showing bands of light to moderate rain nearing Okinawa and the nearby islands. Some of these squalls can bring up to 30mm of rain in just one hour. Accompanying these rains are strong gusty winds of around 50 to even 70kph. Conditions will continue deteriorating tonight and especially tomorrow as Haikui moves closer. Stormy weather is forecast to last into the early part of next week (Monday or even into Tuesday). For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the center of Haikui is still partially exposed. We are starting to see some convection wrapping around the circulation as the storm tries to fight dry air entrainment especially along the eastern side. Much of the convective activity remains across the western portions of Haikui and as highlighted by the radar image above, these clouds are now slowly making their way towards the islands.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There has been a pretty significant change with our forecast, both for timing and the track. We are now expecting Haikui to move near Okinawa starting tomorrow although windy conditions accompanied by strong rains could begin later tonight. Stormy weather will last through at least Monday. Haikui should slow down as it moves into the Eastern China Sea and by that time, it could intensify into a Typhoon. It will continue slowly making its way westward, becoming a Category 2 typhoon as early as Monday night. Current forecasts are taking Haikui towards Zhejiang Province in Eastern China (roughly 250km south of Shanghai). However, there could still be some major shifts with the track in the next 2 days as computer models continue to resolve the issue of the strength of the Subtropical Ridge heading into next week.

For now, though, the focus is on Okinawa and the rest of the Japanese Islands as TS Haikui slowly makes its way from the east. Continue to monitor the developments in your area on the news and on the net via JMA and also on our blog and video updates. If you have any storm reports to share, or just want to post a comment, questions, or suggestions, please feel free to email us at

We'll have another update tomorrow, stay safe!
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 080412

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