Friday, August 3, 2012

Tropical Depression Haikui Update #1

Note: For the latest Video Update on Haikui as well as on the remnants of Saola and Damrey over China, please click HERE
The video classifies Haikui as a Tropical Storm since the data there have been taken from JMA

A new cyclone has developed in the Western Pacific. Tropical Depression Haikui is now moving west of the Ogasawara Islands well south of Honshu. The system was last located approximately 180km west of Iwo To. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. Haikui is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Current satellite image shows the broad circulation of Haikui, extending nearly 400km in diameter. The system is currently embedded along a very active monsoon trough that is extending from the Philippine Sea all the way to the Wake Island. Another developing system--TD 90W--is actually embedded along the same front. This similar disturbance could also develop into a cyclone in the next 2 to 3 days.

Because of the broad circulation, Haikui is struggling to develop a tight core although convective banding has been continuously wrapping around the low-level center. Furthermore, multiple vortices spinning around a center are hindering the system to tighten up. But as conditions in the region continue to improve, we are expecting Haikui to start consolidating better and to start having a faster pace of intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Forecast tracks for the next 3 days are in very good agreement among models and agencies. However, the track disparity starts to diverge once we get into the 4 to 5 day period. Right now, the Subtropical Ridge anchored over Japan is keeping Haikui on a generally west northwestward course. By early next week, however, this ridge is forecast to weaken allowing Haikui to meander over the Eastern China Sea by Tuesday and Wednesday. Our preliminary forecast basically agrees with most agencies. Intensification will be slow for the next 2 days, but should start to ramp up by Monday. We could actually see Haikui become a typhoon as early as Tuesday as it nears Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. After that, we are forecasting a significant slowdown in movement speed as the steering factors in the region weaken. As Haikui stalls over the East China Sea, it will continue intensifying, becoming a strong Category 2 (or even 3) typhoon by Thursday.

We'll have another update on Haikui tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 080312

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