Wednesday, July 18, 2012

TS Khanun Update #6 (Video)

Note: This is our Video Update posted an hour ago. Some of the info inside may have changed so please read our Text Update for the latest.

Tropical Storm Khanun is now nearing Jeju Island in South Korea. The storm was last located approximately 80km south of the island (as of posting time). Maximum sustained winds remain at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Khanun is currently moving north northwestward at 35kph.

Radar from KMA

Latest radar from Jeju shows the center moving near the island. Inner rainbands are now affecting Jeju and Outer rainbands are also affecting South Jeolla Province in the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, sustained winds of up to 50kph are beginning to be felt across Jeju. Since Khanun is moving so quickly, we are not really expecting huge amounts of rainfall accumulations. However, there could still be as much as 100mm falling tonight. For more radar images out of Korea, please click HERE (KMA Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

The storm has maintained intensity despite it being less organized. Recent satellite images depict warming cloud tops which signify weakening. Nevertheless, the center is still well-defined as seen on the above image as well as from radar images in Korea. Due to the cooler waters, we expect Khanun to continue weakening throughout tonight.

Forecast tracks take Khanun along the western coast of South Korea tomorrow morning bringing gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain along the coast. Even Seoul is forecast to have breezy conditions and light to moderate rain showers, particularly in the afternoon hours. TS Khanun is then forecast to make landfall near Haeju or west of Kaesong in North Korea. Khanun will then rapidly weaken as it tracks across North Korea; moving near Pyongyang by tomorrow night. Khanun is forecast to completely dissipate as early as Friday afternoon.

Invest 92W

IR Image from NRLMRY

In other news, Invest 92W continues to slowly consolidate across the Philippine Sea. A low-level circulation center is evident on satellite analysis with winds of 30 to 40kph near the center. Warm sea-surface temperatures and weak to moderate wind shear have prompted JTWC to increase 92W's development chances to MEDIUM and could very well become a cyclone in the next 2 to 3 days. Current computer model forecasts continue to vary as to the eventual track of 92W. Some models take it to Northern Luzon while some track it towards Taiwan. Still lots of time to iron out the track but the timing looks to be around Sunday as it nears the Philippines. Even if it does not make landfall in the country, expect the system to enhance the SW Monsoon bringing rains across Luzon and Visayas early next week.

We'll have another update on both systems tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 071812

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