Monday, July 16, 2012

TS Khanun Update #2 (Video)

Video Update:

08W has intensified in the past 12 hours and has been upgraded into a Tropical Storm by JMA. TS Khanun was last located approximately 780km east southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 90kph. Khanun is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph. Do note that the JTWC is keeping Khanun/08W at Tropical Depression-strength but does expect it to become a tropical storm in the next 12 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite images depict weak central convective activity despite the largely favorable patterns in the area. Sea-surface temperatures are still warm, wind shear is light-moderate, and the storm is exhibiting good outflow channels. We should still see Khanun intensify slightly tonight as the diurnal maximum kicks in; kind of like what we saw yesterday with this system.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Forecast tracks are closely spaced and we expect Khanun to move near Amami Island by Tuesday evening as a weak Tropical Storm. As it enters the Yellow Sea, cooler waters and stronger wind shear should weaken the system. Most tracks bring Khanun into the Korean Peninsula early Thursday morning as a weakening Tropical Storm or even a depression depending on the rate of weakening. The system should dissipate Friday as it tracks across the Korean Peninsula.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 071612

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