Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Tropical Storm Khanun Update #4

Note: For our latest Video Update please click HERE

Tropical Storm Khanun is now moving near the Japanese Islands. The storm was last located approximately 80km north of Okinawa and is moving west northwestward at 30kph. Khanun intensified in the past 24 hours and now has maximum sustained winds of up to 95kph with occasional gusts of around 120kph.

Radar from JMA

Latest radar from JMA now showing bands of moderate to heavy rain affecting Amami, Oshima, Northern Okinawa, and the surrounding smaller islands. Areas here have already reported around 60mm of rain with more to come in the next 2 hours. Daito Islands, which experienced stormy conditions earlier this morning reported rains of nearly 100mm. Aside from the rains, the islands are also currently experiencing strong sustained winds of around 40 to 60kph; some stations have also reported seeing gusts of up to 85kph. Due to the fast moving nature of Khanun, we expect conditions to start getting better in the next 3 to 6 hours. For more radar images, please click HERE (JMA Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS Khanun continues to slowly intensify as the region is still favorable for development. The central dense overcast continue to grow with strong convective activity near the center. Outflow remains good as well and we still expect Khanun to intensify in the next 12 hours as it moves into the Yellow Sea.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

TS Khanun is forecast to peak in intensity tomorrow night at just below Typhoon Strength. Forecast tracks continue to show a landfall in North Korea by Thursday afternoon/evening. However, due to the expected continued intensification, we are expecting a stronger system upon landfall. Khanun should then rapidly weaken and eventually dissipate on Friday as it moves into Northeastern China.

We are also watching an area for potential cyclone development. We have touched on this briefly on our video today. The region located approximately 1,200km east of Luzon could become a storm in the next 3 days. Satellite analysis show abundant moisture with a closed, yet elongated, low-level center. Computer models are in surprisingly good agreement on a development in this area this week. The potential tracks, however, differ between the models. Although a number of them are showing this future system to move near Luzon by as early as Sunday. Please note this is not set in stone just yet but keep this in mind as we head into the weekend.

We'll have more updates on TS Khanun and this potential storm tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 071712

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