Saturday, July 28, 2012

Tropical Depression Damrey Update #1

Note: For the latest update on Tropical Storm Saola (Gener) please click HERE

The former disturbance 95W we have been tracking has intensified overnight and is now a depression. Tropical Depression Damrey was last located approximately 680km east of Iwo To, Japan (Ogasawara Islands). Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. Damrey is currently moving westward at around 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

As mentioned yesterday, Damrey managed to fight off the shear and new convection has built up near the low-level center. However, the system remains asymmetrical with much of the convection still displaced to the east. Right now, the system is not impacting any land although it could approach the Ogasawara Islands in about two days.

Wind shear is light to moderate in the area and sea surface temperatures are still warm. Damrey is forecast to slowly intensify and become a Tropical Storm tonight or tomorrow morning. It will past north of Iwo To by Tuesday and then eventually move to the northwest. Current forecasts are taking Damrey towards Kyushu by the end of the week. However, some models are showing a potential Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) or Fujiwhara Effect with Saola as they move closer to each other by the middle of next week. This DCI has little chance of happening but Damrey could very well influence the movement of Saola.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 072912

No comments:

Post a Comment