Thursday, June 14, 2012

Typhoon Guchol (Butchoy) Update #8

Guchol (Bagyong Butchoy) has managed to intensify into a typhoon overnight as it continues to move westward across the Philippine Sea; please note that JMA and PAGASA is still classifying Guchol as a Severe Tropical Storm. Typhoon Guchol was last located approximately 680km east southeast of Borongan, Easetern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph gusting to 185kph. Guchol is moving westward at 15kph.

We have not yet received any updates if PAGASA has issued any Signal Warnings yet. If they do, we'll quickly edit this update.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Meanwhile, latest satellite images continue to show a compact central dense overcast with convective activity remaining strong. However, last few frames indicate a warming in cloud tops which could either be due to an eye forming or the shear is affecting the storm. Microwave images (not shown here) do show banding continues to be strong although the eyewall is broken, particularly on the northeastern side. Wind shear remains moderate although it has weakened in the past 6 hours. We are still expecting continuous intensification and even the JTWC is now forecasting a peak intensity at Category 3 strength.

Forecast models continue to show Guchol turning to the north later today. While it does look ominous given how close Guchol is to the Visayas and how it continues to move westwards, we still think it will miss the Philippines altogether. However, since it'll be moving closer than previously thought, there could be some rains affecting Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region later today. Furthermore, seas will continue to be rough all along the Eastern Seaboard of the country. Monsoon trough associated with Guchol is also affecting Eastern Mindanao and could bring light rains today.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 061512

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