TS Doksuri (Dindo) Update #4

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Bagyong Dindo) continues to struggle maintaining organization as it battles increasing wind shear in the region. More importantly, the shear is displacing much of the convection to the southwest leading all the rainclouds to move into Luzon. TS Doksuri was last located approximately 180km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. JTWC, on the other hand, has actually downgraded the storm to a Tropical Depression citing the exposed center.

As of 11am today, PAGASA has raised Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela, Batanes Group of Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Abra, and Mt. Province. Signal #1 is in effect for La Union, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Pangasinan, and Nueva Ecija. These areas will continue to feel stormy conditions throughout the day with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rains. Using PAGASA’s NOAH project, many areas, especially in Cagayan, Kalinga/Apayao, and Ilocos Norte, are already reporting rainfall amounts of 40 to 60mm. Some weather stations are also reporting winds of 15 to 30kph. As the storm moves north of Luzon, expect strong winds to continue in the extreme northern parts of Luzon and including the group of islands dotted across Luzon Strait. Rains, meanwhile, will continue today and even into the evening hours. A total of 100 to even 150mm could fall, especially in mountainous areas.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The satellite image above shows the rainclouds associated with Doksuri is affecting large parts of Luzon. The exposed center is also highlighted above. JTWC has mentioned the possibility of a center relocation as the storm moves across Luzon. For now, even though there is no apparent landfall, worst conditions are, nevertheless, affecting the Philippines. Forecast tracks remain generally the same although we do have to watch how Doksuri will emerge into the South China Sea as wind shear does seem to be impacting the storm significantly. We'll have more analysis and forecasts later in our afternoon update.

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Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 062812