Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Tropical Storm Talim Update #5

Tropical Storm Talim continues to move closer to Taiwan. It was last located approximately 240km south southwest of Xiamen in Fujian Province in SE China; also about 470km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds have slightly increased to around 95kph with gusts of up to 110kph. Talim is currently moving northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite data suggests an exposed low level circulation center just south of China. Further analysis continue to show winds of 70 to 90kph particularly on the eastern half of the storm. Strong upper level winds are shearing the convection leaving the center exposed. However, as Talimmoves to the northeast, the bulk of convection is forecast to affect much of Taiwan bringing widespread rains there for the next 24 to 36 hours.

A train of showers associated with Talim extends all the way to the west in Hainan. As Talim lifts northeastward, these showers could also affect parts of Northern Luzon today and tomorrow. Talim will then move into the East China Sea by Thursday morning and could landfall in Kyushu Thursday night or Friday morning. It will quickly weaken and become extra-tropical as it crosses Japan.

We'll have another update later today.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 062012

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