Monday, June 18, 2012

Tropical Storm Talim Update #3

Tropical Storm Talim continues move across the South China Sea. It was last located approximately 280km south southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 100kph. TS Talim is currently moving northeastward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image showing the bulk of convection remaining south of China. Furthermore, increasing northerly wind shear (15 to 25kt) is shearing the convective activity to the south of the circulation center. Tropical Storm Talim is forecast to continue moving northeastward and is aiming the Taiwan Strait area. Most computer models are showing the storm passing through the water and not making landfall in Taiwan. However, it is still expected to bring widespread heavy rainfall across Taiwan and even to the Philippines as the SW Monsoon is enhanced by the system.

Talim will then exit into the East China Sea and start to weaken. It will also start transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves into Kyushu by Thursday.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 061912

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