Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Tropical Storm Guchol Update #6

Tropical Storm Guchol continues to intensify as it nears the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 270km northwest of Yap or about 410km north northeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Guchol is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

All Watches and Warnings in Yap have been dropped by the National Weather Service (NWS).


TS Guchol is now intensifying at a faster pace, thanks to the favorable conditions in the region. Latest satellite data shows a perfectly established eyewall. Since Guchol is a small storm--only 250km in diameter--most analysis techniques seem to underestimate the intensity of the storm. Furthermore, why it may have an eyewall, the eye itself may have a hard time appearing on IR or Visible satellite, again due to its small size.

Forecast tracks haven't changed significantly. We still think Guchol, which will be named "Bagyong Butchoy" later today, will pass 200 to 300km offshore Luzon so no direct stormy impacts are expected. Again this means, Guchol will track northward towards the Japanese Islands (Ishigakijima, Miyako, etc.). The recent trends, however, may lead us to increase the peak intensity by a bit since it will still have 3 days to track across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea.

We'll have another update later today.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 061412

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