Tropical Storm Guchol Update #4

Tropical Storm Guchol is now affecting Ulithi and Fais Atolls and is nearing Yap Island. The storm was last located approximately 590km southwest of Guam or about 290km east of Yap. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph gusting to 85kph. TS Guchol is moving westward at 15kph.

Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Yap Island as well as for Ulithi and Fais.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The storm is starting to become better organized with banding improving on the microwave imagery. While convective activity looks good, it's still mostly fragmented and seems to be feeling the effects of northerly wind shear. Nevertheless, it looks better than yesterday and conditions are forecast to remain favorable which should allow Guchol to continue intensifying.

Computer model forecasts continue to trend to the west with some models bringing Guchol towards NE Luzon. Consensus still keeps Guchol offshore of Luzon although there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to the recurve point. Nevertheless, medium to long-range forecasts keep a wide cone of uncertainty extending from Luzon to Taiwan and to Okinawa.

We'll have another update later today.
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Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 061212