Thursday, May 24, 2012

Typhoon Sanvu Update #8

Typhoon Sanvu has slightly intensified overnight and is nearing the Ogasawara Islands of Japan. It was last located approximately 450km south of Iwo To,  Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 130kph with occasional gusts of up to 155kph. TY Sanvu is currently moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

As expected, Sanvu was able to strengthen overnight as it continues to take advantage of the favorable conditions in the region. An eye was partly visible on the infra-red images a few hours ago, but has since disappeared. Furthermore, cloud tops has warmed especially on the southwestern side. The microwave image below from the SSMI-S satellite shows the eyewall has opened again on the SW side. The storm featured a closed eyewall just three hours ago.


Despite these recent developments, we still think Sanvu should be able to maintain its present intensity, if not strengthen a little bit more, for another 12 to 24 hours. Wind shear remains light to moderate and sea surface temperatures are still marginally favorable. The forecast track remains the same and we are still expecting Sanvu to pass closely by Iwo To tomorrow morning (Saturday). It should then start weakening as it continues to move northeastward, eventually becoming an extra-tropical storm by as early as Sunday.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 052412

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