Sunday, May 20, 2012

Tropical Update

Invest 93W near Palau has dissipated early this morning while Invest 94W continues to slowly develop southeast of Guam. Meanwhile, a stationary front developing across Taiwan and SE China could bring widespread rains in the region. As it slowly moves eastward, the front could enhance showers across extreme Northern Luzon in the next 24 to 36 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 94W was last located approximately 600km southeast of Guam. The system is still strung-out and seems to be having difficulty consolidating. The latest JTWC update retains the MEDIUM rating for the system. Furthermore, the agency notes the monsoon gyre-like appearance of 94W; which is evident by looking at satellite images and seeing the overall size of the system. Therefore, 94W might develop a little slower than most systems do in the Pacific. Conditions remain favorable for development, though, and most computer models are still showing at least a tropical depression to form within the next 2 to 3 days.

Either way, as it drifts northwestward, 94W will eventually bring showers across Guam and the rest of the Marianas Islands. There already some scattered thunderstorms affecting the island which is enhanced by the broad circulation of 94W.

Next update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 052012

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