Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Tropical Update

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) has been put out by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC regarding Invest 96W which we have been watching as it spins off of South China Sea for days now. Increased banding seen on satellite and microwave images suggest that this system may by upgraded to a Tropical Depression later tonight (Philippine Time). In fact, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has already gone ahead in upgrading 96W to a TD and issuing 6-hourly warnings at the same time.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Right now, the location of the center is estimated to be around 540km west of Palawan. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be between 30 and 45kph. The conditions in the region are favorable for further development and computer models are beginning to show better consensus as to the forecast for 96W.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning for more information and detailed forecast for 96W. We will also have our regular 3-day forecast for the Philippines tomorrow afternoon.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 032812

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