Sunday, December 4, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 93W is slowly developing over the South China Sea and has the potential to become a Tropical Depression over the next 24 hours. The low pressure area was last located approximately 280km northwest of Brunei or about 500km southwest of Palawan.

An ASCAT pass earlier today shows 35 to 50kph winds coming from the south and a clear indication of the existence of a low level circulation center. Convective activity is strong despite the moderate easterly wind shear in the area.

JTWC has upgraded the chances to HIGH so we will be closely monitoring this system if it does become a Depression. The forecast takes 93W towards the north and eventually to the northwest--towards Vietnam.

Visible Satellite from NRLMRY

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 120411

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