Monday, December 19, 2011

Tropical Depression Washi Update #12

Washi is now beginning to weaken over the South China Sea and has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression by both the JTWC and JMA. The storm was last located on satellite approximately 570km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 55kph with gusts of up to 80kph. TD Washi is moving west southwestward at 20kph.

Latest satellite image shows the system is becoming less organized as the system begins to encounter unfavorable conditions. Central convection is still strong although the low level circulation center is now partly displaced to the southeast. Nevertheless, the system continues to hold much moisture and has actually brought heavy rains in the Spratly Islands. An islet called the South West Cay (currently occupied by Vietnam) recorded nearly 180mm of rain in the past 24 hours.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

As the system "unravels", we expect rain showers to affect extreme Southern Vietnam, tonight and into tomorrow, amounts should be light. Washi should continue moving southward and could dissipate as early as tomorrow night. Its remnants could affect the Malay Peninsula by Wednesday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Meanwhile, the NE Monsoon continues to affect Luzon in the Philippines. Expect on and off showers with occasional downpours, specially in the afternoon hours. Casiguran, Aurora recorded more than 200mm of rain in the past 24 hours alone. Rains should taper off by Wednesday as the front lifts out. However, another cold front is forecast to dive down into East Asia by this weekend, bringing another round of precipitation and cold air with it.

We'll have more updates tomorrow, stay safe!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 121911

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