Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Tropical Depression 27W Update #1

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has just upgraded Invest 95W into Tropical Depression 27W. This system is located approximately 790km south of Guam. It is moving westward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds are currently around 45kph gusting to 65kph.

We've been talking for days about Invest 95W and its chances of developing; now here we are warning it as a TD. Conditions have been, and continue to be, favorable for development and the system has made improvements over the past 24 hours. Center of circulation continues to intensify and consolidate as evident on a microwave image. Furthermore, convective activity continues to increase and become more organized. Weak wind shear, moist air, and warm sea surface temperatures will continue to persist which will likely help 27W to strengthen further. In fact, JTWC is forecasting this system to become a Typhoon by Thursday!

VIS Image from NRLMRY

As far as the forecast goes, we expect TD 27W to remain in a generally westward movement. Based on its current speed, it is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility late tomorrow; if it does PAGASA will give the name "Sendong". As mentioned before, 27W will probably intensify further, given the favorable environment. It is forecast to become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning and will move just south of Palau. By Thursday, it would be moving inside PAR and has a chance of becoming a typhoon by then--it all depends on the rate of intensification. If it continues to move on its present trajectory, we expect Mindanao to begin feeling the effects from 27W by as early as Friday afternoon.

We'll have more updates tomorrow morning.
Issued (09 UTC) 6pm PhT 121311

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