Monday, December 12, 2011

Tropical Depression 26W Update #2

Tropical Depression 26W remains a weak system as it continues to move westward towards Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are still at 45kph gusting to 65kph. 26W is moving westward at 15kph. The system briefly strengthened last night but then weakened earlier this morning. Shear continues to inhibit development of this cyclone.

Forecast remains generally the same for 26W. We don't expect any significant intensification due to unfavorable conditions that will return in the next 12-24 hours. Nevertheless, we do think rain will begin affecting Southern Vietnam today, particularly those near the coast. Due to the waning convective activity, rains will generally be light to occasionally moderate.

More updates for 26W later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, Invest 95W in the Western Pacific continues to consolidate while moving westward. It is approximately 950km south southeast of Guam. Microwave image shows convective banding with well-defined cyclonic turning at the lower and mid-levels. Conditions are favorable for continued development although computer models are not that bullish. JTWC has upgraded 95W's chances to "MEDIUM" and will continued to be monitored in the coming hours.
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 121311

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