Sunday, November 13, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 91W continues to move westward across the Philippine Sea. It is now within the vicinity of Palau which is roughly 1,000km east of Mindanao. Koror Airport continues to report decreasing atmospheric pressure (now around 1007mb) and widespread coverage of cumulonimbus clouds. Winds are not that strong, however.

An ASCAT pass earlier today suggests a somewhat elongated low level circulation center with winds of 20 to 30kph displaced 100 to 200km away from the center. The LPA is situated in an area of low to moderate wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. However, other ingredients necessary for full-fledged cyclogenesis such as convergence, vorticity, etc are not to sustain Tropical Storm development. Nevertheless, the system still has a chance of becoming a cyclone within the next few days, albeit at a slower pace. Computer models also agree on a weak depression moving through Visayas this week.

Recent developments have prompted the JTWC to raise the LPA's chances to "MEDIUM". We'll have more update in the coming days.

IR Analysis from NOAA showing the location of Invest 91W.

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 111311

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