Sunday, September 25, 2011

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) Update #4

Typhoon Nesat (Bagyong Pedring) has slightly intensified over the Philippine Sea. Maximum sustained winds are now at 130kpg gusting to 155kph. Nesat was last located approximately 850km east of Manila or about 500km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Nesat is moving westward at a speed of 25kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Public Signal Warning #2 for Catanduanes. Signal #1 is in effect for Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Quezon, Polillo Island, and Aurora. These areas will begin feeling stronger winds, rougher seas, and moderate rains of as much as 200mm. Please listen to the authorities for warnings and advisories!

Typhoon Nesat continues to improve its circulation although dry air has actually slowed down, what would have been a rapid development. Nevertheless, conditions remain favorable for further intensification. As you can see in the VIS image, the eye is starting to appear now and the outer rain bands are beginning to make their way towards the Bicol Region.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

We have shifted our forecast track slightly to the south to account for today's trends. We have also made the landfall time earlier than previous forecasts due to Nesat's continued fast forward motion. The general idea, then, is for Nesat to make landfall somewhere in the Aurora/Isabela area, just north of Casiguran by Tuesday morning-Philippine Time. Nesat could be as strong as a Major Category 3 Typhoon upon landfall. If it rapidly intensifies tomorrow, there is a chance it could reach Super Typhoon Status.

Nesat will then continue moving across Luzon on Tuesday and could exit through the Ilocos Sur area by early Wednesday morning. Nesat will maintain that typhoon intensity throughout its passage and could regain strength over the South China Sea.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow, with video. Stay SAFE!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092511

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