Friday, July 22, 2011

Tropical Depression Ma-On Update #22 w/ Video

Tropical Depression Ma-On remains well south of Honshu. It was last located approximately 700km southeast of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are around 45kph with gusts of up to 75kph. Ma-On is moving eastward at around 20kph.

Ma-On continues to weaken with the convection displaced to the east. A latest VIS image also shows multiple exposed low-level circulations. An ASCAT pass shows winds of up to 40kts on the eastern side and also strong winds of 20-30kts all the way up to Southern Kanto Region.

The agencies, though, varies in terms of classification with the JTWC giving out their final warning for TD Ma-On while JMA continues to hold on to that Severe Tropical Storm status for Ma-On. It is understandable to have these differences among agencies although we have to note that JMA is the official RSMC or the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in the Western Pacific, as mandated by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization). The winds posted here at SGB are a compromise between the agencies and based on latest data, I am classifying Ma-On as a tropical depression with winds of around 45kph (as posted).

Anyway, forecasts still call for Ma-On to eventually move north beginning today. It will pass well east of Tohoku this weekend although rough waves will continue to affect the eastern seaboard of Honshu. Ma-On is forecast to become extra-tropical early next week.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, we are still watching Invest 93W in the Philippine Sea. An area of disturbance northwest of 93W is being rated by JTWC as "LOW" for the possibility of cyclone formation. This disturbance, along with 93W and other circulations, are all embedded on an active monsoon trough extending from the Philippines all the way to Eastern Micronesia. Computer models are in very good agreement with regards to development of not one, but two potential cyclones in this region in 3-5 days' time. One of them is actually forecast to pass near Northern Luzon by the middle of next week. So stay tuned right here for the latest updates regarding this area.

Here is our Final Video Update for Ma-On. We will upload a new video once a cyclone develops near the Philippines.

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 072211

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