Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) Update #10

Songda (Bagyong Chedeng) has just been upgraded into a typhoon. Typhoon Songda was last located as of 3pm today (Philippine Time) approximately 1020 km east southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 120kph with gusts as high as 150kph. Songda is moving WNW-ward at 15kph.

Vertical wind shear is relaxing and the dry air NW of TY Songda has begun to wane so we expect Songda to commence rapid intensification today. Microwave imagery as well as recent visual satellite images confirm that an eye is beginning to form. Strong bursts of convection are also seen flaring near the eyewall.

Outer rainbands are also beginning to approach Samar and Bicol provinces so expect deteriorating conditions in the next few hours. As far as rain amounts go, it should be light to moderate or about 30-80mm in the next 6 hours. Winds of up to 20-30kph should also be expected.

Vis sat. image from NRLMRY

As of 11am today, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Signal Warning #1 to Catandanues, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Samar Provinces.
Our forecast for Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) is in line with most computer models, which have begun to show more agreement. Songda should continue moving WNW and strengthening quickly along the way, becoming a Cat 2 typhoon tomorrow. It could become a Cat 3 typhoon (Major) as early as Wednesday night and should make its closest pass to Luzon by Friday morning.We are thinking of an off-shore track just east of Luzon, less than 100km to the east coast of Cagayan and Isabela. TY Songda should reach a peak intensity of around 200kph during that time. It will then turn to the north and northeast away from Luzon, Batanes, and Taiwan. There is chance Songda becomes a Category 4 typhoon before leaving the PAR but that will depend on the rate of intensification and the overall environment.

By the weekend, TY Songda is forecast to move northeastward towards Okinawa.
Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 052411

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