Monday, May 23, 2011

TS Songda (Chedeng) Update #9

Tropical Storm Songda (Bagyong Chedeng) continues to move closer to the Philippines. It continues to expand although the rate of intensification has been limited. The storm, though, appears to strengthening steadily again and we expect TS Songda to become a typhoon this afternoon. Convection is building again and that eye feature on the microwave and IR is beginning to develop again.

TS Songda (Chedeng) was last located 1380km ESE of Manila. It has maximum sustained winds of 110kph and gusts of as high as 130kph. It is moving WNW at 20kph (notice the forward speed has increased as well).

As of right now, PAGASA has not raised any Storm Signal Warnings yet.

Recent computer model outputs are in better agreement compared to previous forecasts with the exception of UKMET. Now pay attention because we've noted how this particular model continues to insist on a direct hit on Eastern Luzon (Aurora or Northern Quezon). It is the outlier right now although the possibility of a landfall in NE Luzon (Isabela or Cagayan) remains low to medium. Our forecast here at Sa Gitna ng Bagyo takes TS Songda close to Luzon but not hitting it directly. We also expect it to become a major typhoon (Category 3) with winds of up to 180kph as early as Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Of course forecasts beyond 2-3 days are always full of uncertainty and we should expect these forecasts to change day by day. Among the various agencies in the Pacific, both the JTWC and the JMA are forecasting a close pass near Luzon. PAGASA, on the other hand, is expecting a direct hit (landfall) in Cagayan or N. Isabela sometime on Friday. Something to keep in mind.

Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 052311

No comments:

Post a Comment