Thursday, May 26, 2011

Super Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) Update #13

Songda (Chedeng) continues to rapidly intensify as it moves across the very warm Philippine Sea. Based on latest satellite analysis, DVORAK estimates, and updates from JMA and JTWC, we think Songda is now a Super Typhoon with winds of about 245kph and gusts of as high as 290kph. This figures are NOT OFFICIAL and have been adjusted from the JTWC warning. Nevertheless, this is one is a very intense typhoon. Songda was last located approximately 520km east northeast of Manila or about 400km east of Baler, Aurora. It is moving northwestward at 20kph.

In this visual image from NRLMRY, you can really see the well defined eye that have appeared last night. Just indicative of the very intense convection and strengthening currently undergoing.

As of 11am today, PAGASA has kept Storm Signal Warning #2 for Catanduanes and Camarines Sur. Signal #1 for Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Albay, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Burias Islands, Ticao Islands, and Biliran Islands.

Our forecast remains generally the same. We're thinking it'll continue moving NW and not make landfall. Thankfully PAGASA has acknowledged this and its forecast is now in line with the other agencies. Anyway, its closest pass to Aparri will be on Friday morning at a distance of around 260-300km. It will then start turning northeastward away from Taiwan and onto Okinawa and Southern Japan. Songda is forecast to leave the PAR as early as Saturday. The critical part of the long range forecast will be which side of Okinawa will Songda hit. We will address this part of our forecast on our next update tomorrow (will also include Okinawa and Japan on our forecast map next).
We are also including this rainfall and wind field map. Basically shows our projected 24 hour rainfall until tomorrow afternoon. You can see that eastern Cagayan and Isabela are forecast to receive moderate rain starting today. Amounts of more than 100mm are likely. Meanwhile, areas like Aparri, Tuguegarao, and Baler are forecast to get light to moderate rain with amounts varying from 50-100mm. Other areas west of that such as Ilocos Region are not forecast to get heavy amounts of rain, just some pop up rainshowers throughout tomorrow.

In that map you can also see the yellow rectangle surrounding eastern Cagayan and Isabela. That is where we think tropical storm winds are likely to be felt. TS winds are about 65-120kph. The light green rectangle depicts tropical depression winds which are less thatn 65kph. This is just a simple forecast based on computer models and satellite analysis. We are not saying Areas included here will experience such events throughout the day instead just a way to remind people there on what to expect for Typhoon Songda.

Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 052611

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