Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Typhoon Chaba (Katring) Update #13

Typhoon Chaba (Katring) further intensified in the past six hours. Maximum sustained winds are now at 175kph. Typhoon Chaba has moved very little though; it was last located approximately 590km east northeast of Basco, Batanes.

Chaba should continue strengthening as it moves northward. We expect it to become a Category 3 typhoon tonight. The forecast tracks haven't really changed although peak intensity has been lowered a bit due to the presence of drier air north of the system. Ryukyu islands will not be directly impacted although latest radar images from JMA show the outer bands have begun work their way into the region. This is mainly light rain although some pockets of moderate to heavy rain might be embedded. The islands should also begin to experience tropical storm force winds in the next few hours.

Latest forecasts take Chaba north and eventually northeastward into Southern Japan. Cooler waters, cold and dry air, as well as increasing vertical wind shear will weaken Typhoon Chaba. JMA and JTWC differ on their timing with regard to the landfall on Southern Japan so for now, we expect landfall to occur this weekend somewhere south of Osaka. Chaba should have weakened to a tropical storm (or transitioning to a extra-tropical storm) by that time.

Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PhT 102710

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