Sunday, October 17, 2010

Super Typhoon Juan Update #19

Super Typhoon Juan (Megi) is now currently making landfall in Divilacan, Isabela. Maximum sustained winds have decreased a bit to 270kph, down from an estimated peak intensity of 290kph. STY Juan is currently moving westward at 20kph.

Due to the mountainous terrain, we expect Juan to weaken considerably. However, it'll still be a strong Category 4 typhoon as it crosses Isabela, Kalinga, and Ifugao. It will weaken further into a Category 3 as it moves across Mt. Province, and eventually become a Category 2 as it moves across Ilocos Sur. Juan is forecast to exit the island of Luzon around midnight tonight.

Our long range forecast predict Juan to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility sometime around Wednesday. Models and weather agencies are still not in agreement as to what happens after day 3. Right now, it looks like Megi is going to turn to the north and will threaten Southern China, including Hong Kong.

Our video update is currently being uploaded and will be posted shortly.
Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 101810

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