Tropical Update

Invest 95W remains largely disorganized south of Guam while a weak low pressure system is bringing rains across Visayas and Mindanao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 95W isn't showing signs of improvement and remains very weak and disorganized well south of Guam. Low-level circulation center is very difficult to find and convective activity has been rather sparse. Nevertheless, computer models are still keying on a cyclone development within 5 days. Whether or not 95W is the one being shown by the models remains a question. Wind shear has been decreasing in the region so we'll have to wait and see how the tropics evolve in the next few days. If this system does develop, computer models are forecasting it to move generally northward and may not enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility at all. However, this 'future system' could become a threat to the Marianas Islands by next week.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure have moved westward and is currently bringing widespread rains across Visayas and Mindanao. Some ares, especially in Northern Mindanao, could receive as much as 50 or even 100mm of rain overnight. This LPA, however, has very little chance of developing in the next few days.

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 090712