Tropical Depression Nangka Update #5 (FINAL)

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 071815
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Nangka has weakened to a Tropical Depression this morning as it continues to move across the Sea of Japan. The system was last located approximately 370km north of Nagoya. Maximum sustained winds are down to 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD Nangka is currently moving northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection weakening significantly with the inner core barely intact. Winds have died down along the northern coast of Chugoku and Chubu Regions as well. We expect Nangka to continue weakening and possibly dissipate later today.

Rains are still lingering, however, across parts of Chubu Region but precipitation should begin to die down as well. This is our final update for Tropical Depression Nangka.

We'll have a separate update for Tropical Storm Halola which is currently moving across the Pacific.

Tropical Storm Nangka Update #4

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 071715
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Nangka has weakened to a Tropical Storm after making landfall in Japan late last night. The system is beginning to exit into the Sea of Japan and was last located approximately 200km northwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Nangka is moving north northeast at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nangka made landfall as a Category 1 Typhoon near the city of Muroto in Shikoku Island at about 10:20pm last night (Japan Time). Winds of up to 160kph were recorded along the coast, along with heavy rains that dropped nearly 80mm (3 inches) in just one hour. Nangka then lost strength as it crossed into the Chugoku Region Western Honshu. The center of circulation is beginning to move into the Sea of Japan and we expect continued weakening as Nangka encounters increasingly hostile environment.

Radar Image from JMA

 With that said, residual light to moderate rains are still impacting parts of Shikoku and Honshu, particularly the Chugoku and Kansai (Kinki) Regions. We're expecting an additional 50 to 100mm of rain to fall through the afternoon and evening hours. Precipitation will slowly move northeastward and will soon push towards the Chubu Region.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Nangka will continue moving across the Sea of Japan today and should weaken to a Tropical Depression by tonight. Increasing wind shear and abundant dry air will continue to induce weakening and we might see the system dissipating by tomorrow as it moves into the Tohoku Region of Northern Honshu. Expect rains to affect parts of the island through tomorrow as well.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Nangka Update #3 (LANDFALL)

Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 071615
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Typhoon Nangka has made landfall in the island of Shikoku in Japan. The eye of Nangka was last located near the city of Muroto or about 190km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Nangka is moving northward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nangka has made landfall near the city of Muroto in the island of Shikoku. Strong winds and heavy rains are affecting much Western Shikoku and parts of the Kansai Region in the island of Honshu. Stormy conditions will continue spreading north and east as Nangka moves farther inland.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image from JMA shows the eye of Nangka along with the bands of moderate to heavy rains, especially along the eastern half of the circulation. Some of these bands can drop as much as 80mm of rainfall in just one hour. We are already seeing accumulations past 100mm in the past 24 hours and we could see way more than that in the next 12 to 36 hours. Some computer models showing the possibility of isolated spots receiving nearly 1,000mm of rain!

For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Nangka will continue moving northward tonight and will cross into the Chugoku Region in Honshu. By tomorrow morning, Nangka will have weakened to a Tropical Storm as it exits into the Sea of Japan. However, widespread rains will still impact much of Central Honshu through tomorrow.

We'll have another update in the morning. Stay safe!

Typhoon Nangka Update #2

Issued (1430 UTC) 1030pm PhT 071515
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Typhoon Nangka has weakened this evening as it moves closer towards Japan. The eye of Nangka was last located approximately south of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are down to 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Nangka is currently moving north northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the rugged eye of Typhoon Nangka moving closer to the Japanese Mainland. Convective activity has weakened and the overall structure has degraded this evening as Nangka continues to battle dry air and decreasing sea surface temperatures. This is being offset by good radial outflow, slowing down the intensification. The image above also shows the outer rain bands starting to affect parts of Shikoku and Kyushu.

Rainbands will continue to spread across the regions of Japan tonight and into tomorrow. Typhoon Nangka is forecast to make landfall in the island of Shikoku by late Thursday evening or early Friday morning. It will then cross into the Chugoku Region in Kyushu before exiting into the Sea of Japan by Friday evening as a weakening Tropical Storm.

Dangerous conditions will dominate the weather across much of Shikoku and Western Honshu beginning tomorrow and will last through Friday and Saturday. Winds of up to 160kph are possible in Shikoku and high waves are likely along the coast. Rainfall amounts of up to 400mm are also possible in many areas in the region.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Nangka Update #1

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 071415
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Typhoon Nangka is the 11th named cyclone to form this year in the Western Pacific Basin. Typhoon Nangka formed back in July 3 and has spent most of its life away from populated areas which is why we haven't been able to post any updates to this storm (combined with the fact that we were too busy with Tropical Cyclones Chan-Hom and Linfa). Now, Typhoon Nangka is becoming more interesting as it could threaten Mainland Japan later this week.

The eye of Nangka was last located approximately 950km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Nangka is currently moving northward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Typhoon Nangka is currently moving across the Philippine Sea. Its intensity has been fluctuating recently as it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Latest satellite analysis actually suggest that the cycle is finishing with a new, much larger, eyewall beginning to take over. We expect Nangka to slowly re-intensify as the region is still favorable for tropical cyclone development.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Based on the latest outputs from the numerical models, as well as the current state of the atmosphere in the Pacific, we are forecasting a general northward track for Nangka. It will slightly bend northwestward by Thursday as the Subtropical Ridge assumes control in the steering. By Friday morning, Nangka is forecast to make landfall in the island of Shikoku in Japan as a strong Category 2 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves will be threatening the region throughout this period as the storm moves north. Nangka will rapidly lose strength as it tracks over Japan but stormy conditions will linger throughout the weekend.

If you live in Shikoku and nearby areas, please monitor the latest warnings and bulletins from your local officials. Start preparing emergency supplies and other plans in case you are on, or near, the path of Typhoon Nangka.

We'll have another update later this evening. Stay safe!