Tropical Storm Soudelor Update #10 (FINAL)

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 080915
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Soudelor has now weakened to a Tropical Storm after making landfall in Fujian Province in Southeastern China last night. The center of Tropical Storm Soudelor was last located approximately 150km west of Fuzhou, China or about 400km west northwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Soudelor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the circulation of Soudelor now moving inland across Southeastern China. Soudelor made its first landfall in Hualien County in Taiwan early Saturday morning as a Category 4 Typhoon. It brought winds of up to 200kph and rainfall amounts exceeding 600mm. It, then, crossed the Taiwan Strait and made its second landfall in the Fujian Province in China late last night as a Category 1 Typhoon. It has since weakened to a Tropical Storm and should completely dissipate within the next 24 hours.

Radar Image from CMA

 
Despite the significant weakening, we are still seeing heavy rain bands affecting majority of Fujian Province and spreading north towards the Zhejiang and Jiangxi Provinces. Some areas in Southeastern China have already received more than 200mm of rainfall since yesterday and additional rainfall amounts of up to 200mm are still possible in the next 12 to 24 hours. In fact, light to moderate rains may linger and move north slowly over the course of two days.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

Tropical Storm Soudelor should continue to rapidly weaken as it loses energy source on land. We expect the circulation to completely dissipate by tomorrow but rains and unsettled weather may remain across Southeastern China over the next 24 to 48 hours.

This is our final update for Tropical Storm Soudelor. We'll have a separate update for Tropical Storm Molave, currently moving well south of Japan, later today.

Typhoon Soudelor (Hanna) Update #9

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 080715
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Soudelor (Bagyong Hanna) has managed to re-intensify back to a Category 3 Typhoon this morning. The eye of Soudelor was last located approximately 400km northeast of Basco, Batanes (Philippines) or about 500km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands. Winds of up to 120kph are expected in this region within the next 24 hours. Signal #1 is in effect for Calayan, Babuyan Islands, and Northern Cagayan for the possibility of winds of up to 60kph within the next 36 hours.

Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has also issued a Land Typhoon Warning as well as a Sea Typhoon Warning for the waters surrounding the island. Numerous heavy rain warnings and advisories are also posted throughout the counties in Taiwan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a much healthier-looking Soudelor compared to yesterday. The system looks very symmetrical and convective activity has increased especially on the southern side of the circulation. Radial outflow remains excellent as well. We may see more intensification later tonight as the system approaches Taiwan.

Radar Image from CWB Taiwan

 
Latest radar image shows the outer rain bands from Typhoon Soudelor are starting to move in from the east. We expect these bands to start affecting the region later this afternoon. Even parts of Batanes Islands will see periods of light to moderate rains, strong winds, and high seas. Heavy rainfall amounts of up to 600mm are possible across Taiwan, especially in mountainous areas.

For the latest weather warnings and radar images for Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website)

Typhoon Soudelor will continue moving west northwestward and is forecast to make landfall in Hualien County early tomorrow morning (Saturday). Stormy conditions will begin tonight and will continue through Saturday afternoon. Residual rains may stay until Sunday.

Soudelor will then weaken as it crosses Taiwan but should remain a Category 1 Typhoon as it makes landfall in the Fujian Province of Southeast China by early Sunday morning. Heavy rains will spread towards the region and may linger through the early part of next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Soudelor (Hanna) Update #8

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 080615
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Typhoon Soudelor (Bagyong Hanna) continues to weaken this morning and is now down to Category 2 intensity. The eye of Soudelor was last located approximately 810km east of Basco, Batanes (Philippines) or about 990km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are at 175kph with gusts of up to 215kph. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands in anticipation for winds of up to 60kph in the next 36 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the bands of convection does not look as organized and symmetrical as yesterday. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving in an area of cooler sea surface temperatures which is leading to weakening. A bout of dry air has also been ingested into the circulation which is not good for tropical cyclone intensification. Radial outflow, however, remains excellent and we expect Soudelor to recover and re-intensify as it reaches the warmer waters just east of Taiwan.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track has been moved slightly south from our previous track.We are still expecting Soudelor to make landfall in Taiwan by early morning on Saturday as a possible Category 3 Typhoon. Heavy rains and strong winds are expected across much of the island. Some areas may even receive up to 600mm of rain which may lead to flooding and landslides. Even parts of Batanes will be impacted with bands of light to moderate rain and tropical storm-force winds. Southwest Monsoon will also be enhanced by Soudelor which may bring scattered rains across parts of the Philippines.

Soudelor will cross into Southeastern China and is forecast to possibly make landfall in the Fujian or Guangdong Provinces as a Category 1 Typhoon. As with Taiwan, we expect widespread heavy rains to impact the region during this time. Soudelor will continue bringing stormy conditions even as it weakens and moves further inland. Total dissipation is not forecast until late Monday.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Soudelor Update #7

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 080515
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Typhoon Soudelor (Bagyong Hanna) has begun to weaken as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Soudelor was last located approximately 970km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye has become cloud-filled and the cloud tops have warmed indicating weakening convection. Soudelor weakened from a Category 5 Super Typhoon down to a Category 4 Typhoon this morning. This is due to a combination of upper-level subsidence and cooler sea surface temperatures along the track. We may see some slight re-intensification tomorrow but nothing like what we've seen from Soudelor yesterday.

Typhoon Soudelor (Bagyong Hanna) will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days. The forecast track has shifted slightly south and we now expect Soudelor to move south of the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. However, the chances are still high for a possible landfall in Taiwan this weekend.

As for the intensity, we still expect Soudelor to be a pretty potent typhoon by the time it hits Taiwan. It will also bring copious amounts of rainfall to the island. As for the Philippines, expect the Southwest Monsoon to enhance light rain showers especially across Northern Luzon. Residents living in Taiwan should continue to closely monitor the development of Soudelor and, as always, heed the warnings of the local officials.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Super Typhoon Soudelor Update #6

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 080415
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Over the past 24 hours, Soudelor has rapidly intensified and is now a Category 5 Super Typhoon. The eye of Soudelor was last located approximately 830km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. Super Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Soudelor underwent an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday and has been able to take advantage of the highly conducive environment of the Western Pacific. As a result, Soudelor went on a rapid deepening overnight and has attained the upper-reaches of Category 5 Super Typhoon intensity. It is currently the strongest cyclone on Earth and the strongest cyclone so far of 2015. We have been seeing warming cloud tops, however, which may indicate that another eyewall replacement cycle may take place soon.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track is a blend of the computer model outputs as well as the forecasts from the numerous agencies in the region. We are seeing a good consensus with the numerous forecasts and, thus, have good confidence in our track. With that said, Super Typhoon Soudelor will continue moving in a generally west-northwestward track over the next few days. It is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow morning (Wednesday) and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Hanna' by PAGASA.

While we are not expecting Soudelor to directly impact the Philippines, the system is still forecast to enhance the southwest monsoon which may bring scattered showers across the country later this week. However, the focus for the possible impacts will be the Southern Japanese Islands and Taiwan. Based on the latest forecasts, we expect Soudelor to impact the said areas beginning Friday morning. Depending on the possible eyewall replacement cycle, there is a good chance that Soudelor will maintain the Super Typhoon intensity (albeit at a slightly weaker Category 4 strength) as it approaches the region.

This is a potentially catastrophic cyclone that may impact the islands of Japan and Taiwan. If you live in the areas mentioned, please continue to monitor the developments of Soudelor. People living in storm-prone areas should start thinking about emergency preparations. As always, heed the warnings and advisories of your local officials!

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Soudelor Update #5

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 080315
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Soudelor continues to rapidly intensify today and is now up to a Category 4 Typhoon! Soudelor is now also moving away from the Marianas Islands and was last located approximately 530km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are up to 230kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Typhoon Soudelor is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service have now lowered all typhoon-related warnings for the Marianas. However, seas in and around the islands will remain high and dangerous for small boats.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a larger eye has replaced the pinhole-eye that we have been seeing for the past 24 hours. This is because Typhoon Soudelor underwent an eyewall replacement cycle today. A new eyewall has taken over and we are already seeing continuous intensification with strong convective activity spreading across all quadrants. Radial outflow remains excellent and we expect continued intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Soudelor will continue moving west northwestward across the Philippine Sea. It may intensify and reach Super Typhoon strength by tomorrow as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAGASA will assign the local name 'Bagyong Hanna'). The good news is that Soudelor is not forecast to directly impact the Philippines.

However, forecast consensus remain fixed on a possible trajectory towards the Southern Japanese Islands and eventually Taiwan. Depending on the rate of intensification in the near-term, the region could be dealing with a potentially dangerous Typhoon by the latter part of this week. Obviously, forecast tracks will change and we'll keep a close eye on the development and movement of Soudelor.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Soudelor Update #4

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 080215
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Soudelor has rapidly intensified today and is now a Category 1 Typhoon. The eye of Soudelor was last located approximately 100km east southeast of Saipan or about 260km northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving westward at 25kph.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan while a Typhoon Watch is in effect for Pagan, Agrihan, and Alamagan. Typhoon-force conditions are expected to batter Tinian and Saipan later this evening as the eye of Soudelor is forecast to pass very near the said islands. Please heed the warnings of your local officials.

For the latest warnings and radar images for the Marianas, please click HERE (NWS Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Soudelor looking more impressive this afternoon. A very-small eye has developed in the middle of the tight convective core. Furthermore, strong convective activity continues along the spiral banding. Radial outflow is also really good and we expect even further intensification over the next few days.

Radar Image from NWS Guam

 
Bands of light to moderate rains have been impacting parts of the Northern Marianas Islands since this morning. Saipan has already recorded nearly 25mm (1in) of rainfall today and nearby islands are close to receiving that as well. Guam has been dry so far but we expect those bands to drop south and starting affecting the island in the next few hours.

Typhoon Soudelor will continue moving on a west to west-northwestward trajectory over the next few days. Its small eye is forecast to move near the islands of Tinian and Saipan later this evening (possibly around 10pm Saipan Local Time). Typhoon-force winds of up to 140kph (85mph) are possible across Saipan and Tinian. Heavy rainfall may also result up to 150mm (6in) of accumulations through tomorrow.

Typhoon Soudelor will continue to intensify as it leaves the Marianas Islands. It may peak at Category 4 intensity by Wednesday. Long-range forecasts have been pretty consistent and we are still expecting the possibility of Soudelor threatening either Taiwan or the Southern Japanese Islands sometime at the end of next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Soudelor Update #3

Issued (1530 UTC) 1130pm PhT 080115
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Tropical Storm Soudelor continues to slowly intensify as it heads towards the Marianas Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 520km east of Saipan or about 620km east northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Soudelor is moving westward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued a Typhoon Warning for Saipan and Tinian. Meanwhile, a Typhoon Watch is in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, and Alamagan. Residents in the affected areas are urged to be prepared for the possibility of typhoon-force conditions within the next 24 hours. Please consult the warnings and instructions of the local emergency officials in your area!

For the latest weather warnings from NWS Guam, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) forming with good convective activity and improving radial outflow. We are also seeing tight banding with an eyewall-like feature starting to develop. Soudelor may intensify at a slightly faster pace as it approaches the Marianas Islands and could become a Typhoon by tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Soudelor is forecast to continue moving generally westward over the next 24 hours, gaining a little bit of latitude throughout. It is forecast to move near the islands of Saipan and Tinian tomorrow evening (Sunday) as a Category 1 Typhoon with the possibility of bringing winds of up to 120kph in the said islands. Heavy rains and high waves will also batter the region. Guam is on the far south side of the circulation and we don't expect anything stronger than tropical storm-force winds.

Tropical Storm Soudelor will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days and intensifying along the way. By the middle part of next week, Soudelor is forecast to possibly threaten Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands as a strong Category 3 (or 4) Typhoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!

Tropical Storm Soudelor Update #2

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 073115
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Tropical Depression 13W has intensified into a Tropical Storm and now has an international name of 'Soudelor.' The storm's center of circulation was last located approximately 700km north of the island of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kh. TS Soudelor is currently moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity forming over the low-level center of Soudelor. We are also seeing good radial outflow which is helping the system consolidate in spite of moderate vertical wind shear in the region. With that said, the environment is still largely favorable which should aid Soudelor's further development.

Tropical Storm Soudelor will continue moving generally westward in the coming days. Depending on the speed of intensification, we may see Soudelor reaching typhoon-intensity this weekend. We may also see the storm move near the Marianas Islands during this time. Meanwhile, the long-range consensus among the computer models and weather forecasting agencies shows a track that may take Soudelor towards the Philippine Sea by early next week and may threaten parts of the Southern Japanese Islands.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Depression 13W Update #1

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 073015
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A new Tropical Depression has formed in the Western Pacific this evening. TD 13W is currently consolidating near the Caroline Islands and may become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. The center of circulation was last located approximately 770km north of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 13W is currently moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity forming in and around the circulation center. Banding is also improving and we could see the system being upgraded into a Tropical Storm overnight. TD 13W is located in a favorable environment in the Pacific and should continue to intensify over the next few days.

Tropical Depression 13W is forecast to continue moving generally westward and may approach the Northern Marianas Islands later this weekend. There is a high possibility for this system to become a Typhoon in the next 2 to 3 days as well. Longer range forecasts show a track that may take 13W towards the Southern Japanese Islands by the early part of next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.