Tropical Storm Trami (Maring) Update #7

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 082013
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Tropical Storm Trami (Bagyong Maring) is now moving to the northwest on its way towards the Southern Japanese Islands and Northern Taiwan. It was last located approximately 300km south of Okinawa, Japan or about 660km east southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Trami is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows that the convection is still being impinged along the northern half of the circulation--an indication that the wind shear is not weakening significantly just yet. Trami is now nearing the Miyako and Yaeyaema Islands of Japan and could start bringing scattered rain showers by the early morning hours.

Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Trami will now continue moving generally northwestward towards the Yaeyema and Miyako Island in Japan and then towards Taiwan. There is still a chance of Trami becoming a minimal Typhoon by tomorrow afternoon as outflow improves slightly and wind shear weakens. Rains and strong winds will impact the Japanese Islands and Taiwan beginning tomorrow and could last through Thursday. Trami is then forecast to make landfall in Fujian Province by Thursday morning as a weakening Tropical Storm.

Radar Image from Subic (ClimateX PH)

Tropical Storm Trami (Maring) continues to enhance the southwest monsoon (Habagat) bringing widespread rains across Central and Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila. For the second day in a row, government offices were closed, schools were cancelled, and even the Philippine Stock Exchance suspended trading once again. Hundreds of flights were cancelled as well as the Manila International Airport wasn't spared by the rising floodwaters.

Many municipalities are now under a state of calamity as record rains fell over the course of 48 hours. A weather station in Cavite recorded a staggering 900mm of rain which is about 3 feet! Unfortunately, we are not expecting the widespread rains to end anytime soon. There may be additional 100mm of rain by tomorrow as the southwest monsoon continues to be enhanced by Trami/Maring.

If you are in flood prone areas, please coordinate with your local officials for possible evacuation. As always, make sure to stay on top of this situation by tuning in to your local tv and radio stations. Stay safe!

If you have videos or photos of the Habagat's impact in your area, please share them us at philippineweather@yahoo.com or by going to our Facebook Page HERE.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Southwest Monsoon in Luzon Update #4

Note: For our latest Video Update released roughly an hour ago, please click HERE

The Southwest Monsoon is starting to shift northwards as Tropical Storm Haikui stalls over Eastern China. Some very good news coming out of the National Capital Region in the Philippines as rains have pretty much subsided in the area. PAGASA has finally dropped their Colored Rainfall Warnings across Metro Manila and the sun is finally shining in many places.

Major thoroughfares are now passable (please consult MMDA via their twitter account HERE) and even the Philippine National Railways have resumed their service this afternoon. The water level in Marikina River (which rose to 20m this morning) is now down to 16.8m and is expected to continue decreasing today. Some dams, particularly La Mesa Dam, are still over the critical level and continue to release water. However, latest update from PAGASA that majority of the dams are showing a continuous decrease in water level since this morning.

Radar from Subic

Latest radar from ClimateX shows that Metro Manila and nearby areas are now seeing rain-free weather. There will still be some isolated thunderstorms in the next 24 hours but these rains should not be as heavy and should not last as long. Meanwhile, areas in Central Luzon will, unfortunately, continue to see rains throughout tonight and even into tomorrow. Radar image still showing thunderstorms moving from the west affecting the provinces of Zambales, Pangasinan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, and Bataan. Floods are still being reported here. For the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts, please go to PAGASA's Project NOAH by clicking HERE

IR Image from NOAA

We are expecting continued improvement in the weather for much of Luzon but again, chances of rain will still remain as the monsoon persists across the West Philippine Sea. In fact, some rains are beginning to make their way towards Taiwan today and some stations have already recorded 50 to 80mm of rain so far. While they may not see as heavy rains as Manila did, there will still be threat for flooding and landslides among many counties in Taiwan.

While we are seeing improving weather, please remain vigilant and keep on monitoring TV or the web for the latest updates in your area. There are still some areas that are flooded and some schools are still cancelling classes tomorrow. Likewise, some roads are still impassable so please be updated on those as well.

If you have any reports of storm or flood damages, please share them with us at philippineweather@yahoo.com

We'll have another update tomorrow, take care!
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Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 080912

Southwest Monsoon in Luzon Update 3

The Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) continues to ravage parts of Luzon. For the third straight day, much of the National Capital Region remains paralyzed as floods continue and even rise in some areas. As much as 150mm of rain was recorded last night across Manila and nearby provinces, prompting another slew of warnings from PAGASA. Malacanang has decided to suspend classes from preschool all the way to postgraduate courses in NCR, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Pangasinan, Laguna, Cavite, and Rizal. Some cities, including Manila have also declared State of Calamity to hasten the release of emergency funds that will be used to help those in need.

Rains will continue today and perhaps into tomorrow. Metro Manila remains under Yellow Warning from PAGASA as more rains move in from the west. These bands of precipitation can bring as many as 30 to even 50mm of rain in just an hour. Depending on the intensity, we won't be surprised if PAGASA issues another Red Warning later today. Please continue to monitor the news on TV for the latest developments in your area.

Subic Radar from ClimateX

Latest radar from Subic shows the train of showers moving in from the west. While the coverage, intensity, and duration of these rains have all decreased compared to the past few days, these showers still have the potential to cause widespread flooding. The Southwest Monsoon has slightly weakened as Haikui starts to dissipate over Eastern China. However, we could still see rains linger into tomorrow (Friday). For more radar images and rainfall forecasts, please go to PAGASA's Project NOAH: click HERE

As for the waterways and reservoirs, the Marikina River has once again rose to record highs and is now around 20.4 meters (as high as yesterday). These prompted evacuations and warnings from the local government. Meanwhile, the image below shows the latest update from PAGASA (as of 6am) showing the status of major dams in Luzon.

Dam Update from PAGASA

While many of the dams here are showing a decrease in water level, majority are still leaving their gates open to continually release water. La Mesa Dam, which is in Quezon city, also continues to overflow with the latest water level still well above the spilling level.

Again please continue to monitor the developments in your area by tuning in to the television, radio, or the internet. If it's not necessary, don't try to go out--unless told so by officials. Always heed the warnings and evacuation orders from the government.

You can also visit Philippine Red Cross if you want to volunteer or donate for those affected by the rains. Finally, if you have images or videos to share regarding the continuous rains and floods in Luzon, feel free to share it with us via email at philippineweather@yahoo.com

We'll have another update later this afternoon. Stay safe!
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Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 080912

Pepeng Weakens, will re-intensify

Pepeng has weakened after entering central Philippines. According to JTWC, drier air and moderate midlevel wind shear have disturbed the convective activity of the storm. It is, however, expected to re-intensify again in the next hours. Latest updates show Pepeng is still a very strong typhoon with winds of about 200-210kph and gusts of over 240kph.

Typhoon Pepeng has also slowed down slightly. This will, in turn, cause it to turn more to the west. If it would make a landfall, provinces of Cagayan, Isabela and northern Aurora will suffer a direct hit; Pepeng is forecasted to hit these areas by Saturday morning.

Heavy rain is expected but not as heavy as Ondoy. However, mountainous areas could receive more than 300mm in the next 24-36 hours.
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Updated forecast maps will be issued at around 2pm PST.
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100209 2am PST (0600 UTC)