Tropical Update

The Western Pacific has remained cyclone-free for the past few days although a low pressure area is currently being watched for possible development.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 95W, located well south of Guam, is showing persistent convective--yet fragmented--activity for at least 36 hours now. While a low-level circulation center hasn't been detected yet by satellite data, it's possible that this low pressure is slowly organizing. Computer models are also starting to take notice with the GFS model forecasting a tropical storm to form by this weekend.

Wind shear in the region where 95W is located range from 20 to 30kt--too hostile for development. However, as the system slowly moves northwestward, it will move in a more favorable environment which could allow the system to organize more. Right now it is still too early to tell if it will become a storm, much less where it is headed, but based on the latest data, the likelihood of a cyclone formation in the next 3 to 5 days is slowly increasing.

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow regarding Invest 95W.
_________________________________________________
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 090612