Typhoon Bolaven (Julian) Update #11

NOTE: For our video update on Typhoon Tembin and Bolaven, please click HERE

Typhoon Bolaven (Bagyong Julian) continues to slowly intensify as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands. The system was last located approximately 360km southeast of Okinawa or about 170km south southeast of Daito Islands. Maximum sustained winds are now at 230kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Bolaven is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

Japan Meteorological Agency has now issued Storm Warning for Daito Islands (likely to be issued across Okinawa later tonight). It has also issued High Waves Warning across the Ryukyu Islands and extends north into Kyushu. Likewise, Kadea Air Base has also upgraded their Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness to TCCOR 1 which means winds of up to 95kph are expected to occur within 12 hours. With TCCOR 1, they are urging personnel to make their final check on preparations and evacuate if necessary. For the latest warnings from JMA, please click HERE, as for Kadena Weather, please click HERE

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar out of Minamidaito shows the outer bands of Bolaven starting to impact Daito Islands and are moving closer towards Okinawa. Daito-jima has recorded 30mm of rain since this morning and more is on the way. As for Okinawa, rains could begin in the next 3 to 6 hours and will only get heavier as the hours go by. Furthermore, Daito Islands have been reporting Tropical Storm-force winds of up to 80kph since noon with occasional gusts reaching typhoon-strength of 120kph. Despite the distance of Daito to the eye of Bolaven, they are reporting impressive winds and pressure data--giving us an idea of how wide the wind field of this system is. For the latest radar images from Japan, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the well-defined eye of roughly 30km in diameter. Furthermore, the system continues to have excellent radial outflow. Convective activity, however, have slightly weakened in the past 6 hours with warming cloud tops evident particularly along the northern and southern sides of the system. We suspect some amounts of dry air continue to be entrained inside the system. In addition, the system is still undergoing Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC/ERC) which began late last night. This cycle usually temporarily weakens the system as the inner eyewall is replaced by a much larger one. In the case of Bolaven, we expect the cycle to complete in the next 12 hours and should still maintain its strong Category 4 intensity. Bolaven could be Okinawa's strongest typhoon since Bart in 1999. Please DO NOT take this system lightly!

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Bolaven is forecast to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility later tonight. It will then make landfall in Okinawa between 10am and 6pm (Sunday). During these times, expect winds of up to 260kph along with heavy rains. Tropical storm winds will begin later tonight and will not end until Monday morning. Furthermore, rains of up to 300mm are also possible in Okinawa and nearby islands. After Okinawa, Bolaven will continue to move northwestward and then turning more to the north by Monday around the subtropical ridge. Cooler waters in the East China Sea along with increasing wind shear should slowly weaken Bolaven. By Tuesday morning, Bolaven is forecast to track just west of Jeju as a Category 3 typhoon. It will continue accelerating and weakening, passing west of Seoul by Tuesday afternoon. Bolaven is forecast to make landfall in North Korea by Tuesday evening as a Category 2 or perhaps a Category 1 typhoon. If this pans out, Bolaven could be Korea's strongest typhoon since Maemi hit in 2003. Bolaven will cross into China by Wednesday morning as a Tropical Storm and should start Extratropical transition therafter.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082512