96W has intensified into a Tropical Storm with an international name of Tembin (local name Igme). Tropical Storm Tembin (Bagyong Igme) is the 14th named Tropical Cyclone of the 2012 Typhoon Season. The storm was last located approximately 330km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. Tembin is currently moving southeastward very slowly.
As of 5pm today, PAGASA is keeping the Public Storm Warning Signal #1 over Isabela and Cagayan. These provinces could experience winds of 30 to 60kph, especially near the coast. Light rains and rough waves could also be a concern in the next 24 to 36 hours.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the storm starting to form a uniform Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with convective activity starting to increase as well. A microwave image (see video) shows improving banding with an eyewall-like feature starting to form. Diurnal maximum later tonight should help Tembin intensify at a quick pace and could be a strong Tropical Storm tomorrow.
The system will start to turn to the north tonight or by tomorrow influenced by the Subtropical Ridge. By the looks of the Tembin this afternoon, we wouldn't be surprised if this gets upgraded to a Typhoon by tomorrow evening. Computer models and forecasting agencies are in somewhat pretty good agreement forecasting a landfall in Taiwan by as early as Thursday afternoon. Depending on the rate of intensification, Tembin could make landfall in Hualin or Yilan County as a strong Category 1 Typhoon. However the cone of uncertainty is still pretty wide. The system continues to wobble in the past few hours so areas along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, and even into Okinawa should continue monitoring the developments of the system.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Another aspect of Tembin is the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat). Right now, the system is still somewhat weak to influence the monsoon surge. Nevertheless, expect light rains to become more widespread across Luzon in the coming days.
IR Image from NOAA
Meanwhile, another Tropical Cyclone development is possible in the next 2 to 3 days as a pair of low pressure area consolidates near Guam. Invests 97W and 98W are meandering near the Marianas, embedded along the monsoon trough. There is an increasing likelihood of a cyclone forming in this area and based on latest data, 97W seems to be the dominant circulation and could absorb 98W in the next few days. The resulting cyclone (if it does form) is forecasted by the computer models to turn westward under the ridge and could intensify into a Typhoon as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this week.
We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 081912
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