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Tropical Depression Paphei (Bagyong Domeng) continues to struggle intensifying as it pushes towards the Southern Philippines. Paphei was last located approximately 300km southwest of Palau or about 700km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Paphei is moving westward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows strong convection forming near the circulation center. However, the bulk of activity is still displaced to the west. Strong easterly shear remains a factor making it difficult for Paphei to intensify significantly. However, these strong upper-level winds are beginning to blow the clouds towards Mindanao and could bring rainfall in the region.
Tropical Depression Paphei (Domeng) will continue moving generally westward in the next few days. Paphei may still be able to re-intensify back to a Tropical Storm once the wind shear relaxes a bit but typhoon intensity is unlikely at this point.
Rainfall may begin, especially across Surigao, Agusan, and Davao Provinces. 30 to 50mm of rain should be expected within the next 24 hours with heavier rains likely to come by Tuesday and into Wednesday. We're expecting landfall to occur somewhere in Surigao del Sur by Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
We'll have another update tomorrow.
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