Tropical Update and 3-Day Forecast (Feb. 18)

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 021813
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A developing low-pressure area, embedded along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, will bring widespread rains across the Philippines over the next few days. This same LPA also has the potential to become a cyclone and will be monitored closely.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The LPA, Invest 98W, was last located approximately 500km east southeast of Davao City. The system continues to show improvements with a well-defined low level circulation center as well as an increase in convective activity. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded 98W's chances to MEDIUM and could become a weak Tropical Depression over the next two days. However, we expect this system to eventually make landfall in Mindanao by as early as tomorrow which could halt development. Nevertheless, heavy rains will begin to impact Mindanao tomorrow, eventually spreading into Visayas and even into Luzon by Wednesday and Thursday. Aside from the rains, windy conditions and rough seas will impact the South.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Rainfall Forecast map above shows where the heaviest rains will fall as well as the potential track for LPA 98W. Landslides and flash floods are possible especially in Northern and Central Mindanao so please coordinate with your local officials for the latest warnings. Eventually, heavy rains could spread into parts of Central and Eastern Visayas bringing the threat of flooding there as well. We are expecting as much as 150 to even 200mm of rain over the next two days in some parts of the country. For the latest rainfall reports and access to Doppler Radar images, please click HERE (ClimateX PH).

3-Day Weather Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Luzon will have relatively quiet weather tomorrow as all the action will be located in the south. However, the rains will eventually push northward as Invest 98W moves across Mindanao. Rains will eventually impact Central Visayas and then move into Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila over the next few days. Some rains could also make their way towards Northern Luzon but the amounts here will be lighter compared to the south.

Our next 3-day Weather Forecast will be on Thursday, February 21; however, we'll have an update tomorrow regarding the progress of Invest 98W.