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Text Update
Tropical Storm Gaemi (Bagyong Marce) continues to battle moderate easterly wind shear as it meanders west of Luzon. The system was last located approximately 300km west northwest of Manila or about 200km west southwest of Iba, Zambales. Maximum sustained winds are down to 85kph with gusts of up to 110ph. TS Gaemi is currently moving west southwestward at 10kph.
As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA continues to issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Zambales and Bataan provinces for the threat of strong winds of up to 60kph along with rough waves.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the low-level circulation of Gaemi remains exposed as easterly wind shear in the region remains moderate (10 to 20kt). Strong shear have displaced much of the convective activity west of the circulation center. Because of this, we haven't really seen widespread rains associated with Gaemi impact Luzon throughout today although occasional showers are still possible. More importantly, the proximity of Gaemi will still bring rough waves across the western seaboard of Luzon extending into the islands of Visayas and even into Palawan. These conditions will be dangerous for sea travel and has actually claimed the lives of two Taiwanese as their boat capsized near Boracay yesterday. More recently, a fisherman was reported missing in Batangas (nearer to Gaemi) after the boat capsized.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
We expect Tropical Storm Gaemi to continue moving westward as the Subtropical Ridge to the north strengthens more. It will also accelerate as it moves across the South China Sea. Due to the weakening that has happened in the past 24 hours, we no longer expect Gaemi to intensify into a typhoon. However, wind shear is forecast to slightly weaken by Friday and Saturday allowing with system to recover.
By Sunday morning, we are forecasting Gaemi to make landfall in Vietnam as a strong Tropical Storm. It will then weaken into a Tropical Depression by Sunday evening as it moves farther inland into Laos. By Monday morning, Gaemi is forecast to dissipate as it moves into Thailand. However, Gaemi and its remnants will continue to bring rains across Indochina in the early part of next week.
We'll have another update on this system tomorrow.
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 100412
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