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Text Update
Jelawat continues to weaken and is no longer a Super Typhoon, although it remains a powerful and dangerous Category 4 Typhoon. The eye was last located approximately 100km southeast of Ishigaki, 450km northeast of Basco, Batanes, 340km east southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, or aobut 450km southwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 215kph along with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) is currently moving north northeastward at 20kph.
As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA as lowered their Public Storm Warning Signals and are now only Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Meanwhile, Japan has issued Storm, High Waves, Flood, and Heavy Rain Advisories for Yaeyema, Ishigaki, and Miyakojima Islands. High Waves warning is also up for Okinawa. Finally, we have Kadena Air Base raising Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readines (TCCOR) to 2 and are expecting winds of 50kt or greater to begin in the next 24 hours.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows that the eye of Jelawat remains established although it has shrunk and has become more rugged compared to yesterday. The eye is still surrounded by strong convection but the cloud tops are beginning to warm. Nevertheless, Jelawat remains a very powerful and expansive typhoon. The good dual outflow channels should continue helping the system offset cooler waters and stronger wind shear and should maintain strong intensity in the next 2 days.
Radar from JMA
Latest radar images from Ishigakijima and Miyakojima showing the eye of Jelawat just south of these islands. Furthermore, the outer and inner rain bands are bringing widespread moderate to heavy rains that are capable of dropping 10 to even 30mm of rain in just an hour. Some stations here have already exceeded 150mm of rain since this morning and 100mm more could fall tonight and into tomorrow.
Along with the heavy rains, strong typhoon winds are also currently lashing the islands. Many stations here are reporting sustained winds of 80 to 100kph along with occasional gusts of up to 160kph. In fact, Ishigaki Airport recorded seeing sustained winds of 120kph along with gusts of up to 175kph which are definitely typhoon force! These rough and stormy conditions will continue through the next 12 hours before starting to taper off by tomorrow. Now obviously, those stormy conditions will move northeastward and will eventually impact Okinawa and the nearby islands. If you live in this region, please please prepare now and continue to check out Japan Meteorological Agency for the OFFICIAL forecasts, warnings, along with the latest radar images across Japan. You can access JMA by clicking HERE
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Jelawat is forecast to continue moving northeastward passing near the island of Miyako-jima in the next 6 to 10 hours. Jelawat could weaken to a Category 3 storm later tonight or perhaps early tomorrow morning (Saturday). By tomorrow afternoon, Jelawat is forecast to make landfall in Okinawa as a Category 2 or even a Category 3 Typhoon bringing strong winds and heavy rains across Okinawa, Amami, and the nearby islands. Based on our forecast timeline, we expect Tropical Storm-force winds of 65 to 80kph to begin impacting Okinawa tomorrow morning. Peak winds of 160kph are forecast to lash the islands between 11am and 5pm Japan Time. Along with the winds, heavy rains should also be expected in this area and could bring as much as 200mm of rain in the next 48 hours. Weather conditions in the Ryukyus could improve by Sunday morning.
By Saturday evening, Jelawat is expected to accelerate to the northeast weakening to a Category 1 by Sunday afternoon. It will stay south of Kyushu and Shikoku but could then make landfall in Kii Peninsula in Honshu by late Sunday evening or early Monday morning as a weakening Category 1 or perhaps a Tropical Storm. Jelawat may be significantly weaker at this point but it could still bring widespread heavy rains across much of Honshu. It will move across Honshu throughout the day on Sunday evening into Monday affecting many regions including Tokyo. It will exit into the North Pacific by Monday afternoon and could become an extra-tropical storm by that point.
Again, please continue to consult your local authorities for the latest OFFICIAL forecasts and warnings with this system. While we are not encouraging you to go outside during the height of the storm, if you can SAFELY manage to take pictures or videos please email them to us at philippineweather@yahoo.com
We'll have another update on Jelawat tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092812
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