Typhoon Mawar (Bagyong Ambo) continues to intensify even as it battles increasing wind shear and dry air. The storm was last located approximately 400km east southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 780km SSW of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 175kph gusting to 215kph. TY Mawar has begun to turn to the northeast and is currently moving at a speed of 15kph.
All Public Storm Warning Signal have been dropped by PAGASA as of 5pm today.
IR Image from CIMSS
Latest infra-red image shows cooling cloud tops as the storm tries to recover from the dry air entrainment observed earlier in the day. The storm featured a defined eye on the visible image although it has remained indiscernible on the infra-red. Nevertheless, the recent trends could indicate that the storm is back on track and will likely continue intensifying for another 12 to 24 hours as sea temperatures and wind shear remain favorable.
JMA has issued High Waves and Storm Surge Warnings for Okinawa, and Miyako Islands in response to the approaching storm. Radar data (not shown here) does show the extreme outer bands from Mawar are still hundreds of kilometers away. However, we are expecting light showers to start tonight as the storm interacts with a stationary front situated south of Japan. Conditions will start deteriorating tomorrow afternoon (Monday) and lasting all day into Tuesday.
Current forecasts are still bringing Mawar within 250km of Okinawa by Tuesday morning. For this track, tropical storm-force winds of around 60 to 100kph are likely for Okinawa. Minami islands might encounter higher winds reaching into typhoon-force (120 to 160kph) as they are situated on the right-front quadrant of the storm. As stated earlier, we are still expecting Mawar to intensify slightly tonight and into tomorrow. At this rate, it could reach Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Mawar will start weakening as it moves away from Okinawa on Tuesday night. By then, cooler waters and higher wind shear will hasten Mawar's weakening. It is also forecast to start transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone by Wednesday as it moves far south of Honshu. Right now, chances are very low that Mawar hits Mainland Japan. Nevertheless, we are still expecting high surf around the Southern and Eastern Seaboard of Japan as Mawar moves across the Pacific. Occasional light rain showers could also affect SE Honshu by Wednesday as Mawar interacts with the baroclinic zone.
We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 060312
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