TS Mawar (Ambo) Update #3

Tropical Storm Mawar (Bagyong Ambo) continues to intensify east of Luzon. It was last located approximately 250km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts reaching 100kph. TS Mawar is moving north northwest at 10kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Polilio Island, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The satellite image shows the central dense overcast with very cold cloudtops forming near the center. Furthermore, rain bands continue to affect the Bicol Region and Southern Luzon, bringing rain rates of 5 to 10mm per hour (moderate to heavy rain!). There could be as much as 100 to 150mm of rain in the next 24 hours in some of these places. Rains here will continue for another 12 to 24 hours along with breezy conditions. As Mawar moves north, provinces in Eastern Luzon will start receiving light to moderate rains today and tomorrow.

Not much change in the forecast track although the latest JTWC warning has shifted somewhat to the north, closer to Okinawa and resembles our forecast track which was issued yesterday. We'll have another update later this afternoon.
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Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 060212