Tropical Update

Invest 95W continues to slowly consolidate as it drifts across the Philippine Sea. The developing low pressure area was last spotted approximately 740km east southeast of Surigao City or about 340km northwest of Palau. JTWC is currently rating the system LOW for the potential of cyclone development. Nevertheless, there is an increasing chance for it to slowly develop and strengthen in the next 3 days.

IR Image from NOAA

Wind shear in the area is low to moderate (10 to 15 kts). Sea surface temperatures are more than enough to support cyclone development. The computer models have also begun to show some potent solutions down the road with the GFS and CMC taking the lead in showing a potential tropical storm (possibly even a typhoon) heading towards Japan by early next week. All of these solutions are still uncertain as we await the development of Invest 95W. While most computer models are showing a track away from the Philippines, its proximity to the country might still influence rains due to the SW Monsoon.

We'll continue keeping an eye on this system as it lingers east of the Philippines. Next Tropical Update will be tomorrow afternoon.
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 053012