Tropical Update

Thunderstorms in the Tropics and a cyclone threat this week highlights today's update.

IR Image from NRLMRY

First, we have a passing cold front that brought rains across Northern and Eastern Luzon yesterday. Rains linger across parts of Eastern Luzon particularly in Quezon province where amounts of between 60 and 80mm have been recorded in the past 24 hours.

The same cold front also brought rains into Eastern Asia last weekend although behind it, High Pressure is building bringing clear weather for much of Japan, Korea, and China. We expect clear weather to stay for another two days before rain returns on Thursday or Friday.

We are also watching a weak low pressure that continues to spin across the South China Sea. Invest 95W still has a LOW chance for development as noted by the JTWC. However, its circulation center (which is pretty evident on satellite) could get help from the surge of NE Monsoon. Furthermore, wind shear in the region has weakened drastically over the past two days. A number of computer models, and especially the ECMWF, continues to show development later this week. Most of them bring 95W into Central Vietnam as a tropical depression or a weak Tropical Storm. Only time will tell if this will in fact become our first named storm. We'll keep you updated about 95W.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Graphic NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Most of the light rains are confined across Eastern Luzon and the Bicol Region. Clearer weather for Northern and Central Luzon which have gotten anywhere between 50 and 80mm of rain yesterday. There could still be some thunderstorms, though, from time to time especially for Central and Southern Luzon. Widespread rain is forecast to return by Wednesday night into Thursday as a disturbance from the east affects the country.

Visayas

Afternoon thunderstorms being observed on the satellite. Nothing widespread so not expecting huge amounts of rain for the time being. Increased chances for rain over the next two days as the disturbance over the Philippine Sea moves westward. There could be as much as 100mm of rain for Eastern and Central Visayas for the next 2-3 days.

Mindanao

Scattered to widespread rains affecting Western and Central Mindanao. Rain showers also being reported in Davao City. As much as 50mm of rain could fall tonight especially in the higher terrain. Chances for rain will remain high over the next few days, particularly in the northern portions of Mindanao.

Next update on Thursday, March 29; earlier if 95W does develop.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 032612